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Leak discounted in sudden rise of the loonie

From Saturday's Globe and Mail

Jump came before release of Statscan data ...Read the full article

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  1. GK cheese from Toronto, Canada writes: The surge is due to the price of oil. Nothing new here.
  2. Auroran Bear from Montreal, Canada writes: This happens from time to time. The BLS has also leaked the NFP's a few times.

    $hit happens.
  3. Mr. Yellin from Ontario hinterland, Canada writes: There is so much trading on insider information right before merger announcements and some how, there is little comment by the press, and no investigation, but let a government official leak, and heaven help us.
  4. The GF from Calgary, Canada writes: The mighty Canadian $ rally is long overdue. When commodities rise in value so does our dollar. Nothing more, nothing less. Why do we always 'Probe' or investigate when prices go up? we spent a ton of money 'probing' when oil went to $147 US$ per barrel. How much time did we spend 'probing' when oil collapsed to $33 US$/barrel??
  5. Dick Dupa from Canada writes: What 'job figures'?
    36000 unemployed people printed business cards and started calling themselves 'selfemployed' . What a circus !
  6. r b from Calgary, Canada writes: Surprised at the laissez faire attitude of most posters: remember the Goodale - Brison income trust leak scandal - clearly Scott Brison committed a criminal offence in sending some timely emails to a few of his 'special' friends, and was let off lightly.

    The same may have happened here. Maybe not. Perhaps just a fortunate bet by some lucky Limey.

    But investigate and throw the book at any official involved if it comes to it.
  7. Captain Yosemite Sam from Cartoonland, Canada writes: Statscan's hand-slapping department will take care of this one. Anyone who took advantage of this info will receive a severe hand slapping!
  8. A person from Toronto, Canada writes: Eeeeeewiiieee...head's are going to roll!!!

    No they won't, this is Canada. By the time they get to the bottom of this it will be 2012. And even then the 'Chatty Kathy' who spilled the beans will merely get a severe admonishing not to do it again.
  9. Fiat Currency from Decree, Canada writes:
    Well I'm not sure that a less than 1 percent move is all that material.

    Marc Faber was interviewed last night where he said that he likes the Canadian, Australian, and Singapore dollars better than the US dollar. People listen to Faber for good reason.
  10. D Peters from Alberta, Canada writes: Oh my, a bunch of imaginary numbers leaked out and imaginary money was made by imaginary people.

    If its good for the dollar I am happy with that. I realize a strong dollar doesn't help our exports any, but it makes me feel better.
  11. J M from Calgaristan, Canada writes: What!!! The Harper government under investigation by the police AGAIN? What a suprise. Time to get some accountability back into this federal government and get on with things. Call the election now!!!
  12. Winston Churchill from London, Canada writes: NO WAY!
  13. D Peters from Alberta, Canada writes: If one wants to subscribe to the New World Order thing, Goldman Saks is mentioned as being in that elite group. Google it and see what I mean. I don't mean the wrestling one either.
  14. Let me tell You How It Is from United States writes: Great news for Canada with a weaker US dollar....fewer Americans visiting Canada and all those unemployed Branch Plant People will take pride in their stronger Canadian dollar and drive to the US to spend it all on made in China junk.
  15. Mapleleafzzz z from Canada writes: This has a been going on for at least 3 mths now....at 6 am usd/cad surges in the direction of the data that will be released at 7 am. It has nothing too do with being long overdue. There is a leak!
  16. c o jones from Canada writes: rb from Calgary, you forget that the RCMP was called into investigate and that promptly notified the media which arguably cost the Liberals the election.

    I think the RCMP should be investigating this too - oops - sorry, I forgot that the new head of the RCMP is a former CPC bagman! So much for any credible investigation
  17. Tim Bryson from Canada writes: Let me tell you how it is...what's up with the Ugly American routine? You are everything that the world hates about the US; full of condescention and arogance, and you don't even have the cajones to use your real name. Let me think...you must work for Faux "News".

    r b...you're right, maybe its nothing, but it has to be looked into. At worst, its insider trading and should be prosecuted. There's nothing imaginary about the crime or the money made off it.
  18. Auroran Bear from Montreal, Canada writes: Let me tell You How It Is from United States writes: Great news for Canada with a weaker US dollar....fewer Americans visiting Canada and all those unemployed Branch Plant People will take pride in their stronger Canadian dollar and drive to the US to spend it all on made in China junk.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Don't be fooled by this gumby. It's a poor self loathing Canadian.
  19. Keith Sharp from Toronto, writes: The minute-by-minute graph at

    http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=CAD&to=USD&amt=1&t=1d

    is worth a thousand words. This is serious. Someone should go to jail for leaking that data an hour early.
  20. Canada 1 from Montreal, Canada writes: Keith Sharp from Toronto, writes:
    is worth a thousand words. This is serious. Someone should go to jail for leaking that data an hour early.

    Are you nuts? The currency traders made a fast buck this morning.......
    or they lost a buck.............remember what they always told us:
    "markets know best".................

    >>>>>>>>>>>>
  21. WILLIAM WEEKLEY from Canada writes: The rise in our dollar can only hurt our it not benefit it. It will make our exports more expensive and cause more industries to leave - just what we need. Stop making good news in the strengthening of our dollar or it bite us in the you know what
  22. Billy Bee from Canada writes: Let me tell You How It Is from United States writes: "Great news for Canada with a weaker US dollar....fewer Americans visiting Canada and all those unemployed Branch Plant People will take pride in their stronger Canadian dollar and drive to the US to spend it all on made in China junk. "

    You broke the US Economy, you pay for it....Thanks, we have enough of our own Chinese junk here. As for Branch plants, doesn't Obama use a Blackberry - which is made in Canada?
  23. William McDonald from Canada writes: Which is it, a strong Canadian $ or a weak US $. any chartist could see the spread begining to narrow in early March. Changing US$ for CDN$ has been quite profitable. Broker (Ret).
  24. Troy K from Calgary, Canada writes: A higher Canadian will help when Harper and McGuinty Buy up General Motors next month...
  25. Hound Dog from Canada, Canada writes: In a previous email I raised the possible connection between Statistics Canada, the Bank of Canada and Goldman Sachs.

    Not only does my comment get deleted but the original article since it was published has also been edited deleting the reference that Statistics Canada does not informed the Bank of Canada of its data before its releases it.

    Whats up guys?
  26. Is there anybody out there from Saltspring Island, Canada writes: Investment folk just love those CONections
  27. Panta Rei from Albania writes: This is how money are made.Hard work , dedication , education that is all crap. Get the right conection in the government get a few banks lined up with a couple a hundred mill , and in less than a day you can make more money than a CAW worker in a lifetime. Then enjoy the life.
  28. Richard Keefer from Omemee, Canada writes: Hey, just a do-it-yourself Goldman-Sachs-type bonus.

    When there's no moral or even legal hazard for taking bribes, tipping starts from the top down.

    It's Springtime, so...

    Birds do it, bees do it,
    PMs do it, even educated statisticians do it,
    Let's all be hookers.

    Thanks to Oilcan Steve, who makes it all possible.
  29. r b from Calgary, Canada writes: What's your point co jones - that wrongdoing should be shuffled under the carpet until after an election?

    If a Tory is responsible for this, if in fact a leak was made, it should be made public. Pronto. And heads should roll. If.

    I think you see "CPC bagmen" under every bed - highly unlikely given the Liberal stranglehold on power and appointments for most of the last 50 years. But possible I suppose.

    Brison was as dirty as a gas station oily rag, everyone with a functioning brain knows it. There was clear anecdotal evidence that Brison's contacts traded on the income trust information and profitted heavilly.

    The semi-gormless Goodale absorbed the lion's share of the smearing because of ministerial responsibility, and the fact that little creep Brison was on the fast track to leadership.

    Throw the book at the crooks, regardless of who is in power.
  30. ted betts from Toronto, writes: CPC press release of Dec, 28, 2005, quotes then-Finance Critic Monte Solberg upon the announcement of the RCMP investigation into the income trust leak:

    "The Finance Minister has no choice but to tender his resignation. This investigation confirms that there are reasonable grounds to suspect criminal wrongdoing in his department or office, and as minister he must accept responsibility. That's how our system works."
  31. Vic Vegas from Guncouver, Canada writes: Ya, that's what did it...a reporter leaked the Canadian job figures. That or Santa Claus filled up the seligh with premium gas and sent oil two dollars higher. It could not be that everything not nailed down went up today.
  32. Linda Dial from Canada writes: “Nor do I pay much attention to that kind of thing.” He added, “I have a blind trust...". Hmmmm...perhaps more attention should be paid here instead of turning a blind eye. The last time this happened, the NDP wrote a letter to the RCMP and asked for an investigation of the Ministry of Finance officials. Mr. Harper went pitbull over it. But there's no story here.
  33. Winston Smith from Canada writes: Insider trading happens everyday in this banana republic. We have police that routinely investigate themselves and politicial leaders who oversee these same police and themselves. There no enforcement.
  34. charles ANTHONY from Canada writes: Markets and their participants including rules and reg people are a farce!They are the responsible ones that created"the Great Swindle" by baby boomer pro's. The duplicite generation.Liars and cheaters with a smile.
  35. Bill Harrison from Canada writes: Everyone wants to blame someone: the Harper/Flaherty haters will blame the government; those who don't trust the media to keep news unpublished until a specific time will have reason to blame them; and others will see a civil service conspiracy to embarrass the government which has alsohappened. A great day for Conspiracy-Theorists!
  36. Bill Harrison from Canada writes: Oh, and I forgot to mention Opposition politicians who, disappointed with the good economic news, will try and obfuscate the good news with accusations of dire deeds by the government.
  37. a neumann from Chicago, Illinois, United States writes: Investors did not need a leak to have pretty good idea that the Canadian dollar was going to go up . the currencies of all commodity based economies have been going up as prices of commodities rise. Also investors are less concerned with risk and are leaving US dollar based investments like Treasury bonds. Any inside information on this issue was no better than info one could get on from Yahoo financial or from Marketwatch.
  38. diane marie from calgary, alberta from Canada writes: Bill Harrison:-- The point is that if the shoe were on the other foot, the CPC would not be cutting the Minister any slack. Indeed, the professional smear-spreaders would be out in force. But, the CPC having advertised itself as the Pure as the Driven Snow Party, and its supporters having succumbed to a terminally partisan case of Holier Than Thou-itis, it is mistakenly assumed that there couldn't possibly be any governmental culpability or the need to take any responsibility.
  39. G. Veneta from Canada writes: Must be a leak. This has been happening for too long to be too many coincidences.

    As for the job numbers --just how does 36k people out of work now calling themselves 'self-employed' become good news? They may be self-employed earning a big fat goose egg or crumbs. These are not real jobs that should be part of the stats. This is spinning bad news into good.
  40. Bill Harrison from Canada writes: Well Diane Marie, seeing you raised the issue of cutting slack, it is interesting Ms. Dhalla is asking everyone to cut her some slack which she was never willing to do when she had a government member in her sights. Certainly the elitist Ottawa media is cutting her a great amount of slack. The Don Newman Parliamentary Press Pundits were leaning over backwards to avoid saying anything unkind. So unlike that group when it comes to most politicians, so was it because she is a Liberal, or because she is a woman, or because she is a Liberal woman?
  41. Kothar Rumbleg from Canada writes: This rally is going to somehow be derailed at some point. There is still not enough out there to justify this rise in everything, other than the gov spin doctors coating everything in pixie dust!
  42. Rudy H from Canada writes: This is so funny. Jim Flaherty gets laid last night and has a smile on his face and someone jumps to conclusions that by coincidence happen to be right. Love it.
  43. Great Southwest from Canada writes: Fix the leak.
  44. Rocky Balboa from United States writes: If you live in the US and are getting a CPP check every month, your check in May will probably be a little larger than it was in April. On the other hand, the world price of oil could go down again, setting off another $C sell off. Markets are fickle. One person's rumor is another person's research.
  45. D K from Canada writes: "Let me tell You How It Is from United States writes: Great news for Canada with a weaker US dollar....fewer Americans visiting Canada and all those unemployed Branch Plant People will take pride in their stronger Canadian dollar and drive to the US to spend it all on made in China junk. "

    You forgot.. we will be driving our Japanese made cars, eating german chocolate.

    Watch out.. your President is eating Dijon mustard!! The traitor!
  46. D Wiatzka from Canada writes: G. Veneta - You assert that it must be a leak but then you yourself comment on how weak those jobless numbers really are.

    You, like many others, are overlooking the 1.5% rise in oil prices 2 hours earlier.

    Fluctuations in oil prices correlate much more strongly to fluctuations in the Canadian dollar than jobless numbers do.

    Further, the light trading is additionally responsible for the exaggerated effect of the one hedge funds decision to take a long position on CAD.

    Unlike the ridiculous rally in income trust prices after the leak from Goodale's ministry, this spike has very obvious and simple market factors at play.
  47. diane marie from calgary, alberta from Canada writes: Bill Harrison:-- I'm sure that you'd like to think that the Liberal Party should fall based on the alleged exploits of a single MP, but if that were the case, then the Conservative Party would have been toast based on the old exploits of Mr. "A Group" Lukiwski, Maxime Bernier's inability to take his job seriously, or Gerry Ritz's unguarded and inappropriate comments at the time of the Listeriosis outbreak (Maple Leaf Foods). A politically mature person puts all of these events into perspective. I think we ought to wait to learn the facts of the matter, don't you? If you think the role of the press is to rabble-rouse, then you are undoubtedly disappointed that Ms. Dhalla hasn't been drawn and quartered by now.
  48. Brian G from Canada writes: Flaherty is incompetent at balancing a budget or managing the government finances, and for that reason he should be fired. He also can't hold his tongue, he's responsible for the leak and for that reason he should be investigated by the RCMP. The sudden movement in the dollar was a bet on the job numbers, not commodity prices, and the job numbers were completely the opposite of what was expected. Somebody made millions on that move. If we had a bloody monkey as finance minister it would be an improvement
  49. mighty conan from Calgary, Canada writes: Dead cat bounce. Wait 'til the fallout from the Chrysler/GM debacle hits the fan. There's plenty more blood to hit the floor yet...
  50. Jay Fitzgerald from Canada writes: Whats the big deal. The $A has risen from $ US 0.63 to $US0.77 in a few weeks. The $Can has dropped against the $A. by almost 10% in the same period. The Australian Fed Rate is 3%.
    Wait till something REAL really happens before making a federal case out of it
  51. Norm Jom from Petawawa, Canada writes: Canadians, what a bunch of....CLOWNS!
  52. Ghetto Dude from Bonusland, Canada writes: Everybody knows it is all about leaking. There is a war between insiders and investors. Everybody knows the good guys lost.
  53. Catherine Wilkie from Canada writes: "To me, it raises all kinds of red flags," Doug Porter, an economist with BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said in an interview. "We saw a very distinct move in the currency from about 6:15 a.m. and 6:45 a.m. and it certainly looks unusual, to say the least."
  54. Joe V from Canada writes: I wouldn't be surprised if it was leaked. How many people know these numbers before they are released? Maybe 50? All it takes is one of them to blab to a friend. Encrypt the message/conversation with the leak and there is no trace.

    As for the comments suggesting that this job figure is misleading and inconsequential, I don't disagree, but that is not the point. The point is that over time such leaks and insider trading appear to be happening more frequently, reducing the efficiency of the market and cheating honest participants out of their money.

    The US SEC is incompetent, short-staffed, and corrupt, but at least it pretends to care. In Canada, the OSC does not even keep up that pretense; it does absolutely nothing.
  55. W. L. from Whistler, Canada writes: Large bets like this are usually hedged by the pros. When they're not we usually see a story about a rogue trader.
  56. Major Pain from Canada writes: More screw-ups from the amateurs running our country.
  57. Mike Sharp from Victoria, Canada writes:

    Are we to link the rise of the loonie with Ignatieff's increasing popularity in Quebec?

    Nudge, nudge.
  58. Bill Harrison from Canada writes: Diane Marie: Perhaps I am too cynical, having worked at one time in the media, but yes to your statement. The Ottawa media would have drawn and quartered any Conservative woman MP by now. As for Mr. Bernier he paid a price for his indiscretions, but was reelected; Mr. Lukiwski did apologize for something that happened many years ago and was reelected by his constituents; and Mr. Ritz also apologized, and his constituents will judge him in the next election. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Some MPs believe they are entitled to their entitlements!
  59. Auroran Bear from Montreal, Canada writes: Mike Sharp from Victoria, Canada writes:

    Are we to link the rise of the loonie with Ignatieff's increasing popularity in Quebec?

    Nudge, nudge.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Your stupidity and ignorance is boundless.
  60. reason passion from Canada writes: Bill Harrison - The Ritz and Lukiwski episodes were indiscretions that demonstrated the juvenile mindsets of both men. The Bernier affair was something quite different - a Foreign Affairs Minister and member of a supposedly 'anti-crime' government consorting with a known associate of organized crime. Then we learned that Bernier had left NATO documents on Afghanistan at his lover's house - documents that no doubt dealt in part with a certain crop that grows in Afghanistan that his lover's criminal associates would likely have found of some passing interest. Yet the minority Prime Minister claimed for weeks that it was nothing but a personal matter. That would be the same former Reformer who called for an RCMP investigation of alleged leaks from Ralph Goodale's Finance department during the December 05/January 06 election.
  61. Susan Parker from Edmonton, Canada writes: Every time inflation picks up, the markets somehow rejoice. Does anyone see the corolation between the 'quantitative eashing', described by CBC as printing money out of thin air and the devaluation of our purchasing power YET?

    For Flaherty, there's nothing to leak except that they never explain the outcome of the quantitative eashing. He's a frank nonleaker, which makes no logical sense but to try to be a nice little story. Project Mockingbird in full gear here.
  62. diane marie from calgary, alberta from Canada writes: Bill Harrison:-- One of these days, CPC-supporters will give up on the incredibly stupid "entitled to entitlements" shtick. If they're entitlements, then one is entitled to them. Despite the big smear job by the CPC, it turned out that not only was David Dingwall entitled to his entitlements, but he'd not indulged himself in excess of them. The phrase is empty of any credible meaning, but that doesn't stop empty-headed partisans from repeating it.
  63. diane marie from calgary, alberta from Canada writes: I guess that might be "quantitative easing"?
  64. diane marie from calgary, alberta from Canada writes: I guess that might be Operation Mockingbird instead of Project Mockingbird?
  65. jimmy juju from Canada writes: Someone in NY clearly has a bat phone to the BoC, i wonder who that would be.

    Anyone guess.
  66. w sykora from Canada writes: Mr. Flaherty may pride himself on a "certain degree of frankness" but this frankness is only feigned. It has little to do with honesty, and everything to do with obstinacy and agressiveness in advancing and defending his boss's position.

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