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Spring rally gathers steam

The Canadian Press

Unexpected increases in U.S. pending home sales, construction spending lift investor hopes the worst is over ...Read the full article

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  1. Winston Smith from Canada writes: 1982?
  2. Douglas Freestone from Canada writes: Winston Smith from Canada writes: '1982?'

    Great book.
  3. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: No Winston April/May 1930
  4. Comments closed, censored, hidden, deleted, disappeared from Obamatieff's village, Canada writes: Virtual economy: tell us more about the real economy! The real economy.
  5. Frank Montro from Montreal, Canada writes: Good times are back again!!! Now if I could only find a job...
  6. Shawn Bull from Canada writes: Housing starts are up. Consumer spending is up. Stock market close to 10K points. Could we be at the bottom of this recession? Let's hope.
  7. J. Kenneth Yurchuk from Canada writes: Trillion Lobsters: Keep predicting disaster, and eventually you'll be right. Even a stopped watch is right twice a day.
  8. J. Kenneth Yurchuk from Canada writes: Shawn Bull, we may be at the bottom of the Stock market meltdown, but on main street things will be bleak for some time to come. Six to twelve more months of job losses, high unemployment, bankruptcies etc.
  9. Captain Yosemite Sam from Vancouver, Canada writes: Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally. Bear market rally.
  10. nitro meyi from toronto, Canada writes: it seems the usual suspects want misery to linger over the world....maybe putting positive hopes on this is what we need...no nagging doom and gloom as it seems to be the norm around here...
  11. The choices we make decide our place in life from Canada writes: Captain Yosemite Sam from Vancouver, Canada writes: 'Bear market rally. : repeatedly

    ==================================================

    So how long does a Bear Market Rally have to go on until it is a recovery?

    I love pessimists.
  12. Chris Halford from Ottawa, Canada writes: The stock market boys and girls are having a hot flash. Trouble is, it only takes one bad piece of news to give them cold feet and the index to drop back down the tubes. It would be nice if logic had more of a role in this.

    We have huge numbers of unemployed people and that has yet to be addressed. Also, there has still been no fundamental fixes make to the markets and financial instittuions to minimize the chances of the same thing happening all over again. We're back to the same old manipulations. Refer Comments clsoed and Frank Motro.

    Shawn Bull as usual echoes the Harper 'Don't worry, be happy.' line.
  13. Chris Halford from Ottawa, Canada writes: nitro meyi from toronto, Canada writes: it seems the usual suspects want misery to linger over the world....maybe putting positive hopes on this is what we need...no nagging doom and gloom as it seems to be the norm around here...

    ** Denial is so much more comfortable.
  14. The Conservative Liberal from Ukraine writes: He said confidence has returned as central banks and governments “have more or less thrown everything they have at [the recession].&8221;

    1- Taxpayer money to aid Chrysler
    2- Taxpayer money to aid Ford
    3- Taxpayer money to aid GM
    4- Afghan war on 'Terror'
    5- Iraq war on 'Terror'
    6- HMO & Healthcare cuts
    7- War on Somali Pirates
    8- Swine Flu

    What's next?
  15. Don Quixote from the wet Blackfly Belt, Ont., Canada writes: Douglas Freestone from Canada writes: Winston Smith from Canada writes: '1982?'

    Great book.

    Did you mean 1984 (the Book) from G. Orwell or the recovery news stories following then 1982 time after the highest interest period in Canada?
  16. Dakota _ from Canada writes: I blame Harper for the markets going up!

    Since it was his fault they went down then it must his his fault they are going up!

    We need the Liberals and their American Idol leader to save us from these scary changes in the market!
  17. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: J. Kenneth Yurchuk from Canada writes: Trillion Lobsters: Keep predicting disaster, and eventually you'll be right. Even a stopped watch is right twice a day.
    ____________________________________________________

    Hey Kenneth I never said you can't trade this market and make a bundle and I do. But only a fool would stay in over the weekends.

    I truly would like to say this is sustainable. It isn't IMHO.

    Tight stops keeps one safe.

    The investment banks are driving this rally not the big money. They are trying to unload positions they took last year and have been crushed.

    That's just the way I see it. If you look at insider trading reports, all, and I mean all, corporate execs on the DOW are dumping their stock in this rally.

    They are not buying they are selling this rally.

    That tells me this is smoke
  18. CallofDuty . from Canada writes: nitro meyi from toronto, Canada writes: it seems the usual suspects want misery to linger over the world....maybe putting positive hopes on this is what we need...no nagging doom and gloom as it seems to be the norm around here...
    -------------------------
    We want a rally based on real earnings. Not from bailouts, stimulus, speculation etc. Tell me how things have changed from the past 8 years? Are we still a society based on debt? Considering all these layoff and bankrupties. It's hard to believe that isn't a bear market rally based on inflation.
  19. Brian R from Halifax, Canada writes: 'The choices we make decide our place in life from Canada writes' I agree with your implication on pessimists. It seems like a bit of a rally and remember 'pessimists are great people to borrow money from, cause they don't expect to be repaid' :-)
  20. The Conservative Liberal from Ukraine writes: I wonder if the 'Face Masks', 'Tyelenol', 'Tamilflu', 'Advil', 'Sudafed', 'NeoCitran', and other Procter&Gamble helped at all?
  21. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: he choices we make decide our place in life from Canada writes:
    So how long does a Bear Market Rally have to go on until it is a recovery?

    I love pessimists.
    _____________________________________________________

    I love optimists, especially when they scramble to get out of positions in the market as it slides 10% before they get on the computer in the morning or their broker won't take their frantic call.

    For the record sports fans the April rally in 1930 was 22 weeks I think.

    Just keep buying, hopefully though you are trading and not holding.
  22. Captain Yosemite Sam from Cartoonland, Canada writes: One or two years.
  23. paul gilliam from Gatineau, Canada writes: a deathly silence descends on the liberal war room.
  24. Patrick Mitchell from Edmonton, writes: If this does continue, 'A Night with the Bears' could possibly be the most poorly timed event of the investing year. The market has laughingly spat on Roubini, Sprott and Gordon. I'm disappointed in myself for believing Kondrietieff was anything more than a dreamer. If it does turn out Roubini et al are right, selling may be the right thing to do today. For the sake of poetic justice, one can only think a pounding will come soon.
  25. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: Brian R from Halifax, Canada writes: 'The choices we make decide our place in life from Canada writes' I agree with your implication on pessimists. It seems like a bit of a rally and remember 'pessimists are great people to borrow money from, cause they don't expect to be repaid' :-)
    ______________________________________________________

    No Brian we send you to gamblers anonymous
  26. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: What i love about you guys is your eternal optimism. You think because we had a good month that the world is back to normal.

    I'm glad you feel that way but sucker rallys can be long events. History has shown that.

    Just because you get a 20 week rally doesn't mean the coast is clear,

    Use your common sense, trade the rally but be bloody careful and don't be complacent.

    Patrick your reference to Kondratieff shows you need more understanding of economic theory, this is years of charts, not 5 weeks.

    This is 4 year adventure not a 30 week dope smoking party/
  27. Buddy Rich from Toronto, Canada writes: Indexes move, but stocks that should move, barely...it's very frothy, its about time to short...
  28. Buddy Rich from Toronto, Canada writes: Watch for S&P between 900 & 920...be prepared!
  29. Hockey Nomad from Mississauga, Canada writes: All the fundamentals indicate the market should be going down, ie the unemployment numbers. Interesting to see construction going up, is that false hope.

    I see this as a blip and only a bear rally. I waiting to buy when the markets come back to february's levels.
  30. The Real PS from Canada writes: Chris Halford from Ottawa, Canada writes: We have huge numbers of unemployed people and that has yet to be addressed.
    .
    Actually Chris, we don't, there is no doubt that unemployment has gone up and there is little doubt it will continue (albeit at a slower pace) but we don't have huge numbers of unemployed, we, as a Country, are still below 10%. And I appreciate its very tough if you're one of the unemployed but on a national basis, it's still not bad.
    .
  31. Brian R from Halifax, Canada writes: If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada, so have you ever heard the saying 'make hay while the sun shines'?

    If you see 22 weeks of gains and than a couple of weeks crap, than maybe a 16 week gain and 4 weeks crap and a 20 week gain followed by 14 weeks of crap, things still seem to be on the plus side to me over an 18 month period.

    Ya your right we can stop in the middle of that 14 week decline and say all the optimists are dreamers but a half full glass of water will still quench my thirst.
  32. J Lee from Canada writes: I don't know what optimism or pessimism has to do with trading the market. I try to stay totally neutral and let the market tell me only if it is going up or down. I can be pessimistic and hold long positions and optimistic and hold shorts. But when I hold positions based on my feelings I know I am going to lose my shirt. So I love both optimists and pessimists. One of them is taking the opposite side of my trades.
  33. The Real PS from Canada writes: paul gilliam from Gatineau, Canada writes: a deathly silence descends on the liberal war room..
    .
    Great post Paul. If this really is the start of a recovery the libbies are toast for the next 2 years..
  34. Right Winger from Canada writes: The markets will rebound 9-12 months before the economy. It's been that way throughout history and this isn't any different. My portfolio is up about 33% so far this year. It still has a ways to go to make up for the losses from last year, but I have no doubt that it'll come back. Regardless of what the financial geniuses here say.
    There will always be people that see nothing but doom & gloom and ignore the positive signs. A terrible way to go through life, if you ask me. Not only is their glass half empty, but it'll never be full again.
  35. C. M. from halifax, Canada writes: People still need to live and with many stocks, especially commodities, down 90 %, it's not rocket science that they can't stay that low forever. Check out FNX mining and Dennison Mines...more impressive gains than those mentioned in the article and they are in our backyards.

    1) Stocks are just too cheap.
    2) Everything our governments are doing is inflationary.
    3) Interest rates for the savers are nil.
    4) Money is just too cheap.
    5) The gov wants us to spend and invest, not save and they are making
    it impossible with monetary policy to do anything else but spend and invest.

    How could people not spend and invest in these times ??
  36. The choices we make decide our place in life from Canada writes: Trillion Lobsters: Buy and hold does not mean buy and ignore. Sure the economy still has challenges but the trend is starting to flatten out. That means that now is the time to buy. Companies with strong balance sheets and good business plans are still dirt cheap. I had been buying them on the way down from November to March. Now I am double my money over what my account was in September 2008. The companies are strong companies that have been beaten down because of pessimists and the general market conditions. Personally I am hoping for another crash in the next 6 months. That will trigger my stop losses when it turns around and limit buys on the way down as the buying opportunities present them selves. That is why I love pessimists. You guys sell stuff in a pannick, driving share values of good companies down unnecessarily. That creates great buying opportunities of opportunists like me.

    Thank you and keep up the good work.
  37. Disgusted Canadian from Canada writes: Well Iggy, give your head a shake, things are looking up, you blew it.
  38. Auroran Bear from Montreal, Canada writes: Sell in May, go away.
  39. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: The choices we make decide our place in life from Canada writes:
    That is why I love pessimists. You guys sell stuff in a panik, driving share values of good companies down unnecessarily. That creates great buying opportunities of opportunists like me.

    ____________________________________________________________

    Sell stuff in panic?? What are you talking about, I never sell in panic. For the record I'm an optimist actually not a pessimist.

    BTW you've only doubled, gee your pessimism is costing you cash

    I've tripled my mine.

    The whole point is about being careful. Not being stupid.
  40. C. M. from halifax, Canada writes: The only way the USA in particular and many other industrialized countries can possibly deal with their mega debts is to fuel a huge spike in inflation. That's an absolute !! If anyone else can suggest any other way like simply raising taxes 80 %, I'd love to hear it. Being that interest rates for savers are now nil and this burst of inflation is on the horizon, it begs the question as to what fool would keep their money on the sidelines (savings) and have it's value devoured by inflation. This rally is a no-brainer.
  41. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: The markets will rebound 9-12 months before the economy. It's been that way throughout history
    _______________________________________________________

    Nice revisionist history buddy, not so, 1929-1935, 1970's, 1980's

    Get your facts straight and stop bullshitting.
  42. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: C. M. from halifax, Canada writes: The only way the USA in particular and many other industrialized countries can possibly deal with their mega debts is to fuel a huge spike in inflation. That's an absolute !! If anyone else can suggest any other way like simply raising taxes 80 %, I'd love to hear it. Being that interest rates for savers are now nil and this burst of inflation is on the horizon, it begs the question as to what fool would keep their money on the sidelines (savings) and have it's value devoured by inflation. This rally is a no-brainer.
    ___________________________________________________

    Check your history CM inflation killed stock markets.

    Jesus you people are thick. next!
  43. C. M. from halifax, Canada writes: If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes:
    Check your history CM inflation killed stock markets.

    Jesus you people are thick. next!
    '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
    Really !! That's news to me. And what's your suggestion , keep your money in the bank and have it devoured by inflation ?? What bridge are you living under ??
  44. Donald I from Victoria, Canada writes: DO NOT BE FOOLED.

    The biggest fool is the one who fools himself!

    Single family construction down more than 7% declining for the 37-straight month! Jobless number coming Friday expected to be 610,000. Banks destroying new houses that are 80-90% complete rather than pay fines or completion! Price of gold going up today.

    Why do the two big bullion banks on Wall Street hold almost 100% of the commercial net short positions on gold? Why are they pumping VERY LARGE sums into June and December call/put contracts? This large size of money would raise eyebrows any where else. Going into the out-of-the-money option market allows flying below the radar. VERY INTERESTING. Is it not?

    Watch the price of gold in the next 30 to 60 days, and again at the end of the year. The market she is bouncing! Bouncy, bouncy!
  45. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: No Cm buy physical gold and commodities stocks . BTW, You have deflation still my friend.

    Inflation linked t-bills etc there are tons of investments. Do you due diligence regarding this it isn't' as cut and dry as it appears
  46. J. Kenneth Yurchuk from Canada writes: Trillion Lobsters, I'm also a trader, not a buy and hold guy, but I think this rally has more legs than just a bear rally. I have posted before though that I expect this to be a short bull by historic standards, and may never make it all the way to Main Street.

    In about a year, inflation will kick in big time, forcing central banks around the world to jump interest rates in order to try and prevent hyper-inflation. That will kill the bull in it's tracks and usher in the second dip of a double dip recession.
  47. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: Kenneth your analysis could be true as well. I think it is too early to fully understand this. Even so, i'd rather be cautious than foolhardy. Remember the damage we saw in October - the leveraged hedgies and investment banks are buying everything on leverage again.

    When they get margin called look out.

    So until the charts say otherwise I'll be in the market but out just as quick.

    happy trading to all
  48. Toast And coffee from Canada writes: Far too many posters are assuming that our economic problems ( which I agree are not nearly over) means that stock portfolio's are no place to be. This is simply not true. There are dozens of stocks that have priced in a very, very severe recession. There are dozens more that are very profitable and will continue to be profitable even if the recession gets much worse.

    Buying stocks in companies that are succeeding is the escense of succesful investing. During the best economic times, almost any stock is a winner. During a recession, only some will make you money. There is never a time when good stockinvestments are not available.
  49. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbawe, Canada writes: Toast And coffee from Canada writes: Far too many posters are assuming that our economic problems ( which I agree are not nearly over) means that stock portfolio's are no place to be. This is simply not true. There are dozens of stocks that have priced in a very, very severe recession. There are dozens more that are very profitable and will continue to be profitable even if the recession gets much worse.

    Buying stocks in companies that are succeeding is the escense of successful investing. During the best economic times, almost any stock is a winner. During a recession, only some will make you money. There is never a time when good stock investments are not available.

    ___________________________________________________

    careful toast not everyone understands both sides of the market trades and shorting for example.

    you need to explain a little further. you are correct though.
  50. Douglas Freestone from Canada writes: Don Quixote from the wet Blackfly Belt, Ont., Canada writes: 'Douglas Freestone from Canada writes: Winston Smith from Canada writes: '1982?' Great book. Did you mean 1984 (the Book) from G. Orwell or the recovery news stories following then 1982 time after the highest interest period in Canada?' It was a joke, but props to you for catching it. Seriously though, interest rates at that time were ridiculous. I can remember 3 people on my small street doing midnight-runners on their homes.
  51. Dick Dupa from Toronto, Canada writes: Great rally, manipulations oil and gold. Look at night, oil is down but at 9:30AM....is up.
    This is casino, suckers rally that will crush soon. Remember one thing: NOBODY makes ANY money now. Real money are made when corrections happen.
  52. Fractional Reserve Banking from Canada writes: The choices we make decide our place in life from Canada writes: So how long does a Bear Market Rally have to go on until it is a recovery?

    I love pessimists.
    ___________________

    Where it left off before the crash, 15,000.
  53. Sidney M from Toronto, Canada writes: LOL at everyone over the last five months who claimed, without any evidence whatsoever, that last fall's downturn was the worst economic disaster since October 1929 or, even further, that it signalled the 'end of capitalism.' To be replaced with what, pray tell? Communism? Feudalism? Subsistence agriculture? Hunting and gathering?
  54. Winston Smith from Canada writes: The newspaper headlines in 1982 were absolutely horrible and it turned out to be the start of one of the greatest bull market in history.
  55. john doe from toronto, Canada writes: go for it.
    good times ahead !!!
    things can only get better !!!
    so, take the plunge and spend, spend, SPEND !!!

    better than soap operas...
  56. Bob Dylan's Voice from Canada writes: Lobster,

    You absolutely slay me. Two or three weeks ago you were calling for the Dow at 3-4000 because you were listening to an elliott wave supporter. Your steer was get to cash. You have had a similar rant during most of March. I am surprised you still show up at these forums given your complete miscall over the last 8 weeks.

    Now you say you tripled your money. What a joke unless you took your empties back. Keep dreaming that you somehow are a savvy investor. I sure hope no one is listening to your advice. Still waiting for you to admit you were wrong wrong wrong,
  57. Dan Theman from Ottawa, Canada writes: Just sold half of my portfolio (mostly Canadian banks). If anything, will be buying oil. Even if TSX and Dow are below 8000 by the end of this year, oil will be at least $65/barrel.
  58. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from Canada writes: Dan Theman from Ottawa, Canada writes: Just sold half of my portfolio (mostly Canadian banks). If anything, will be buying oil. Even if TSX and Dow are below 8000 by the end of this year, oil will be at least $65/barrel.

    ________________________________________________________

    Finally someone with a good idea, boy, maybe you other geniuses could provide a perspective like Dan did.

    Take the profits Dan never hurts ya. well done
  59. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbabwe, Canada writes: Dylan you are an idiot, provide perspective and something of interest or go back your cave.

    I have said from the start to trade this rally. What have you offered?

    Nothing but Noise,

    you must have got killed in October and it still bothers you
  60. david t from Canada writes: This market is to trade in and out of and nothing more. This fake/sucker rally can not go foreveer when you have BANKRUPT companies begging for taxpayers money just to survive. People are still broke/maxed out and wages are going down and jobs are being lost. I guess everything is ok.
  61. J. Kenneth Yurchuk from Canada writes: Trillion, I called October in early August, and was a big time bear until the end of January. Maybe it's just luck but I've been ahead of the trend for two years now.
  62. david t from Canada writes: Oh ya....sell in May and go away. Today is a good time to do that.
  63. J. Kenneth Yurchuk from Canada writes: Fractional Reserve Banking writes: Where it left off before the crash, 15,000.
    ___________________________________________________________

    I disagree. I believe we have entered a secular bear period, meaning the long term trend will be a channel with lower highs and lows, but within that secular trend, there will be a series of bull and bear markets. I doubt we are going to see 15,000 for a decade at least, but that doesn't mean that the market will be down or the economy depressed for that whole period.
  64. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbabwe, Canada writes:

    Oh and Dylan I still believe 4000 DOW, we have a long long way to go, but, then again, like all folks with nothing to say but criticism of people's ideas you'll claim victory when it happens.
  65. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbabwe, Canada writes: Kenneth I remember that -well done, keep an eye on this thing

    There are so many things false about this rally. But it'll be fine as long as it lasts.
  66. Trev C from Orleans, Canada writes: When you stop hearing polititions piping up about how they are going to fix things up it will be the start of a turn-around.
  67. If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbabwe, Canada writes: Bob Dylan's Voice from Canada writes: If I had a Trillion Lobsters (a Million is now a trillion due to QE) from canbabwe, Canada writes: Dylan you are an idiot, provide perspective and something of interest or go back your cave.

    I have said from the start to trade this rally. What have you offered?

    Nothing but Noise,

    you must have got killed in October and it still bothers you
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Lobster, if I am an idiot, I am a rich one. I went all in in late February. Now I am up 70% with this latest rally after taking 1/2 my money off two weeks ago. Yes I am taking money off again today.

    You unfortunately are a serial liar and I recall vividly in early March sparring with you about some early rally signals. Your comments has been, you will get your head handed to you. Well my head is intact but your reputation is not.

    I thank the G&M for the opportunity to expose your market miscall. I am sure you meant well, you just didn't get it right.

    And I am at my highest portfolio value ever even after suffering a 20% set back in the fall of last year. Life is good.

    ______________________________________________________

    there see did it hurt to tell what you did?

    Serial liar?? I have been consistent from the start of this mess. My reputation is intact because I have been consistent - at no time have I wavered. I have said from the beginning in March be careful. Trade as you will.

    You are all in? When will you be all out is the interesting question.
  68. Joel Banks from Halifax, Canada writes: ' Life is good,' sings Bob Dylan. Good for whom?

    We should pause. FOR NOW, the stock market, especially in the USA, is reacting positively to the loose logic of recent government and central bank actions. Is loose logic sound policy?

    By elevating 'recovery' above reform and transformation, government and central bank, in Canada and the USA, are pushing people into risky over reliance on equity investments and real estate
    speculation. People should note, however, that the same actors are aggressively undermining workers' rewards, and the value of cash savings, totally insensitive to the impact on spending that these 2 phenomena must have. Who will buy expensive food and goods, and, of course, overpriced houses, North America's best product.
  69. C. M. from Halifax, Canada writes: J. Kenneth Yurchuk from Canada writes:

    In about a year, inflation will kick in big time, forcing central banks around the world to jump interest rates in order to try and prevent hyper-inflation. That will kill the bull in it's tracks and usher in the second dip of a double dip recession.
    ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
    I wouldn't be so sure that the central banks are going to do anything to stop hyper inflation, at least not in the States. How else are they going to deal with that horrific debt except to inflate it away ? They also wouldn't want a stampede out of equities to safer high yield savings. I just don't see anything but prolonged, serious inflation, at least in the USA.
  70. Dick Dupa from Toronto, Canada writes: These 'positive data' are laughable and meaningless, just propaganda and creation of phony 'indicators' to prop up the market and lure investors.
  71. C. M. from halifax, Canada writes: Bob Dylan's Voice from Canada writes: Lobster,

    Now you say you tripled your money. What a joke unless you took your empties back.
    ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

    Funniest post in months !! Thank you.
    Actually the dooms day sayers are guaranteed to be correct eventually. The earth will be swallowed by the sun in a couple of billion years.
  72. J. Kenneth Yurchuk from Canada writes: CM, there's a difference between controlled and hyper inflation. It's like the difference between burning a little brush and a raging forest fire. I agree the central banks are prepared to allow some inflation even up to 7 or 8 per cent. There is extreme danger in this and I'll just point out Weirmier Republic Germany in 1928-29, and Zimbabwe recently. Things almost got away from us in the early '80s as well.
  73. John Connor from Canada writes: Buddy Rich from Toronto, Canada writes: Indexes move, but stocks that should move, barely...it's very frothy, its about time to short...
    -------------------------------
    Best advice on this thread so far.
  74. J S from Canada writes: I find it sad that no one invests as a long term goal anymore. It's all about getting in and getting out as fast with as much as you can. Whatever happened to buying shares in a company because you believe in the company, their ethics and their long term goals. But, then again, companies don't have long term goals anymore either - they hinder the short term gains. And, why worry about the long term costs when you can make that short term gain today. I seriously think that planning is a dying art.
  75. Knuckles Muldoon from Etobicoke, Canada writes: This is the effect of people exiting out of cash (especially out of US cash) before the hyperinflation.

    People holding cash and bonds are going to get slaughtered pretty soon.
  76. Dick Dupa from Canada writes: In 10 min or so I am buying HXD-T, and watch tomorrow !
    What comes up so fast, will be down even faster.
  77. i coffey from Canada writes: J S from Canada writes: "Whatever happened to buying shares in a company because you believe in the company, their ethics and their long term goals." Like in Moneyball, it's a baseball player's stats (OBP etc) which are important, not how aesthetic he looks in his stance.

    Joel Banks from Halifax, Canada writes:"By elevating 'recovery' above reform and transformation". Yes where is all of this financial reform that we are supposed to be seeing? Where are the changes to derivatives? Does anyone know if they've even started to look at an overhaul?
  78. Toast And coffee from Canada writes: JS........I can assure you that it is still the case that long term investing is still the norm by a wide margin. This blog is frequented by some short term traders and also some who pretend to be investors, but don't let that fool you. I do , though, agree that there have been corporate strategies that focused on increasing share prices near term to the detriment of the long term. I blame CEO compesation packages for the most part.
  79. Captain Yosemite Sam from Vancouver, Canada writes: Did you mean HXU or HXD? I thought the market is going to 15,000, a full recovery?
  80. Joe V from Canada writes: Spending up? Not surprised. Hello hyperinflation.
  81. Steve French from Windsor (Flint, North), Canada writes: Funny how they announce a 'turn-around' every other day when the market inches up a few points, but announce 'no-recession' the next day when it hits the dumper again.
    Does Harpo also write financial drivel for the G&M?
  82. Joe V from Canada writes: I can't predict what will happen in Canada, but I would not be surprised to see the Dow double within two years. The "gain", however, will be almost entirely imaginary, driven by inflation.
  83. S. Forrest from Cambridge, ON, Canada writes: So, with a huge money supply and renewed confidence, we can expect interest rate increases and/or inflation. Probably both.
  84. C. M. from Halifax, Canada writes: J. Kenneth Yurchuk from Canada writes: CM, there's a difference between controlled and hyper inflation. It's like the difference between burning a little brush and a raging forest fire. I agree the central banks are prepared to allow some inflation even up to 7 or 8 per cent. There is extreme danger in this and I'll just point out Weirmier Republic Germany in 1928-29, and Zimbabwe recently. Things almost got away from us in the early '80s as well.
    """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
    Ya 7 or 8 % or 10 or 12 % for 5 years running ought to do it but I am saying, more importantly, that I doubt our monetary leaders will do anything about it. That is to say, they won't let interest rates rise along with inflation unless our equity markets can be seen as fending for themselves. All of this qualitative and quantitative easing seems designed to pummel savers and reward spending and investors. Understandable since money sitting in the bank does nothing for economic growth. Money is a verb, not a noun they'd argue.
  85. Silver Standard (We need Tariffs and an end to Globalism) from Canada writes: I said it before and I will say it again, when you print enough money the market is bound to rally...OH and BTW gold is up too with this rally...not good for markets I do say. This means that is a inflation driven rally.
  86. Toast And coffee from Canada writes: S Forrest.......I think you are right about inflation but it will take a while. I think these low rates are staying for at least a year. My hope is that they raise them early and just in small chunks. Unfortunately, both the B of C and the Fed have a history of being impatient. They expect to raise or lower rates and see an impact in a few weeks when the reality is that the impact can only be felt in months at the soonest.

    If I was calling the shots, a quarter point increase would be sheduled for June and another for september.

    The US is counting on inflating their economy as the only possible way for them to balance their books. I see minimum wages being $20 in 6 or 7 years.
  87. A Allan from vancouver, Canada writes: There was a picture that came along with this article that showed a bunch of people standing around with headsets and and cheering wildly. My question is "who are these people and why are they cheering?". I'd heard that the locations for greatest cocaine use in the country was Wall / Bay street. Beginning to believe it when I see people getting excited over fractional gains when a good look shows that the economy (not the market... the economy) STINKS!
  88. Silver Standard (We need Tariffs and an end to Globalism) from Canada writes: 0.3 percent is laughable btw.
  89. Soft Landing from Canada writes: I bought in early April and now selling ... not bad for over 20% profit in less than a month. Be it a sucker or bear rally, if you stay on sideline, you stay poor.
  90. Donald I from Victoria, Canada writes: Suckers rally.

    California: Jan-Mar, 135,000 default notices sent out, 80% increase.
    Biggest housing market in the US foreclosure sales account for 50% of sales!

    New job losses expected number at 610,000 on Friday.

    Yup. Sure got a great 'recovery' underway! Look out below!
  91. Joe V from Canada writes: A Allan: The stock market has a way of attracting morbidly stupid gambling/drug-addicts. Likely owing to their sheer stupidity, they get so excited when a stock climbs by 0.1% that they cheer and pump their fists into the air. It is funny to watch, but not nearly as funny as their reaction a few minutes later when the same stock falls by 0.1%.
  92. various degrees from Hamilton, Canada writes: l For one would love to see an upswing with a raging bull market. However to quote Yogi Berra "It ain't over til it's over" Don't break out the champagne yet. As someone mentioned above the rally in 1930 was 22 weeks and then the fertilizer hit the fans. As much as l wish it would,this is not going to bounce back in a couple of months. However If it proves me wrong ,there will be nobody happier than me but l am not holding my breath. This plus the fact l was born in the depression and have lived through lots of recessions.
  93. ss dd from Vancouver, Canada writes: Joe V from Canada writes: A Allan: The stock market has a way of attracting morbidly stupid gambling/drug-addicts. Likely owing to their sheer stupidity, they get so excited when a stock climbs by 0.1% that they cheer and pump their fists into the air. It is funny to watch, but not nearly as funny as their reaction a few minutes later when the same stock falls by 0.1%.
    ---

    Goldman-Sachs in playing the market, and quite a few gullible souls start talking about "recovery" and "gathering steam".

    It's ridiculous bordering the absurd, but hey, feel free to "invest" your money in such a great economy. Who knows, maybe is a "new paradigm" again...
    Somebody must play "the sucker" into a sucker's rally... :-)
  94. Don Quixote from the wet Blackfly Belt, Ont., Canada writes: I agree with the 'If I had a Trillion Lobsters' fellow.
    Sucker rally, one probably followed by more to come.

    Keep trading, lock in your winnings, sell crappy stuff you bought to the eager lions of the sucker rallies, and you never look back.

    Especially if the markets flatten out following summer as it did in the seventies and higher interest rates start frothing again.....

    You can still play the markets if employment or business is down, but be careful, very careful where and when you trade.....
  95. Winston Smith from Canada writes: Well, they just said AIG may not need anymore capital: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anLdzOeVM_tc&refer=home
  96. Steve Church from Canada writes: The underlying fundamentals support nothing more than a 'good news' stretch. The source of the money infusion to kick-start the rally may very well be government debt. Encouragement from construction starts up in the month of May has 'hope' for a middle name. Step right up to the market wheel - red or black, place your bets.
  97. Narsultan Tulakaby from Canada writes: Economic indicators are crap, banks are zombies, feds are printing money as fast as they can, wages are stagnant, accounting standards are back to Enron style and yet the markets markets are up.

    There is no suckers rally without suckers.
  98. kevin o'connor from Canada writes: Must agree with many on this board on two fronts which, oddly, seem to be fighting each other in the posts. 1) likely a suckers rally. too much fundamental badness still, foreclosures, insolvent banks cooking the books in the USA etc. 2) those who see this as an opportunity to promote capitalism is dead, far right left and right and looney theories (the goldbugs are my favourite - so earnest and well meaning, so off on an irrelevant tangent), are nutters who would make things much worse if they had power over more than their clickers, mice and (most of the time) their bowels.

    I still think dow 6000 this year is probable, as is major bank nationalization in the USA. On a personal investment level I've managed to break even since same time last year by putting cash in small canadian companies I can understand and averaging down over the fall winter while wearing a diaper. I have reaped the benefits in the spring. Now it's time to take some cash out. I basically believe Roubini and Krugman are more right than wrong and am adjusting my investing accordingly.
  99. Trev C from Orleans, Canada writes:
    Isn't the P/E Ratio of the DOW back to 20? Same as when the it was up at 14,000?

    A rough guess says it should be cut in half.

    With the Inflation coming debtors will be saves and savers crushed.
  100. carole campeau from montreal, Canada writes: up , down , up ...Who needs that garbage....
  101. gerard wade from st.john's, Canada writes: isn't the old saying go away in may??!! so the speculators look to make their money then vanish and watch the market fall for the summer!!! this is not a rally!! the experts are calling for the price of oil to drop over the summer!!! so ok drive the market up 20% on spec and everyone breathes a sigh of relief while the day traders and the 1 day buy and hold guys > rake in their profits as so called investors??!!
    hey globe and mail if only you guys could read??!! lets get real!! the economy will take years to rebound not days!! have you lost the ability of common sense??!!
    wait until the car guys really start to impact the economy and the suppliers begin to fold in ontario!! you want to see a rally?? downward!!!
  102. Joe V from Canada writes: Trev C: You're right about the market being tremendously overpriced. When I look at stocks today, at least 19 out of 20 are priced too high. However, who knows if they will actually fall to a more reasonable level. There are too many ignorant participants in the market today. Even the banks now seem barely concerned with value; they are focused instead on predicting price movements, which is little more than gambling.
  103. Tom Smith from Canada writes: The DOW is still in 1997 territory. Chrysler is bankrupt. GM is about to follow suit. Does this look like the end of the recession? Come on.
  104. C. M. from Halifax, Canada writes: It's not the end of the recession folks. You're missing the point. Stock markets are LEADING INDICATORS....got it ??? They are not in perfect sync with the economy nor are they lagging the economy. Here's another thing to remember, BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. If you wait until the economy recovers to invest, you are way behind the curve. This is smart money happening. Getting in at an approximate bottom and predicting the economy to recover in a year or two.
  105. Comments closed, censored, hidden, deleted, disappeared from Obamatieff's village, Canada writes: "Spring rally gathers steam..." --- Oh yes, I had forgotten. Of course, there's the spring rally. --- The spring rally: recovery and prosperity just around the corner. --- Why was I forgetting the spring rally? --- The spring rally... yes, the spring rally... of course, dear me, the spring rally...
  106. you can leave here for 4 days in space but when you return it's the same old place from Canada writes: hey Lobster...you're making me dazed and confused...on April 20th you wrote this: "Well today is the day when the markets are set to descend to their ultimate bottom in 2011 according to Martin Armstrong's economic confidence model. So this week and next should be highly interesting." duh,I think they went the wrong way!!....so are you following this model?...you must be .. you've been leading us to believe this all along... you also must be setting up for for some magnificent shorting...please clarify your position...
  107. Mark Keller from Canada writes: Please help me with this one. I'm wondering to what levels we ought to expect the markets to recover. As I understand some of the issues, a rather great deal of pre-2008 'value' has been destroyed because American real estate markets were in a bubble. To me, that suggests that a hoped-for normal economy in some months could not possibly reflect stock values equivalent to a few months ago.
  108. Smoking Man from Dyslexic side of the moon, Canada writes: When I called the bottom, the last week of Feb I was 100% sure of the turn. at the time Gloom and Doom everywhere, no one posative story and the market stopped droping and started turning.

    This recovery has gone up to fast, and the markets are trading at the mean, which means I have no idea of where it's going to go right now.

    Right now is the tougest time to predict futuer direction,

    wait I have an idea

    ............

    ............

    It's Tails.
  109. Stevie Dee from Canada writes: Lobster,

    I'll add my voice to Dylan and You can leave here and call bullsh*t on you too! Further to what You can leave here said, I seem to recall you saying on April 17 that Monday would start the next leg down...and then, as You can so aptly pointed out above, you crowed like a rooster when you got 1 down day on the 20th, then disappeared during the subsequent run up.

    Remember, I told you to stick to what you do best. That's telling people after the fact how you called what was going to happen. Don't stick your neck out when you can be proved wrong. Well, glad to see you took my advice and you're back to vaguely saying you're up huge $ over this month where everything you've posted went the oposite way. How is that? You might as well say you've made billions and are just shy of making the Forbes list...who can prove you wrong?

    The only people that should be listening to you are people looking for a contrarion indicator.
  110. Wayne Walker from Canada writes: I keep hearing that buy and hold is dead. The day traders want to tell you how clever they are but no one ever tells us about the bad days, If buy and hold is wrong, must explain that to a friend who bought a couple of companies at $18, has seen them split 3 times and still increase in price. Both of these blue chip companies pay solid dividends (now at $12 and $17.50 per original share). The original investment of $360,000 combined has now shrunk to $5,000,000 with $290,000 of dividend income. How short sighted can these buy and hold types be?
  111. Bob Dylan's Voice from Canada writes: Smoking Man from Dyslexic side of the moon, Canada writes: When I called the bottom, the last week of Feb I was 100% sure of the turn. at the time Gloom and Doom everywhere, no one posative story and the market stopped droping and started turning.

    This recovery has gone up to fast, and the markets are trading at the mean, which means I have no idea of where it's going to go right now.

    Right now is the tougest time to predict futuer direction,

    wait I have an idea

    ............

    ............

    It's Tails.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    I agree and am down to a 50% position. That way I will always be 1/2 right (and half wrong unfortunately). I could see the market continuing based on momentum but the sentiment seems to be for a pull back. If there is a significant pullback, it might be another good buy in opportunity. It has been a great run the last 8 weeks
  112. Peter Kells from Bytown, Canada writes: Sounds like its time to increase the value of those retention bonuses. After the poor dears deserve it.......don't they?
  113. PW Bailey from Canada writes: This is no ordinary inventory recession. It is structural and governments are interfering with the correction process by lower interest rates and quantitative easing to re-inflate the bubble.
    I am bracing myself and take precautions.

    A couple of blog links if you're interested:
    http://whatisthatwhistlingsound.blogspot.com/2009/04/prepare-to-get-whacked.html
    http://whatisthatwhistlingsound.blogspot.com/2009/03/road-to-monetization-is-paved-with-good.html

    And some of my strategies:

    http://whatisthatwhistlingsound.blogspot.com/2009/03/strategies-part-1.html
    http://whatisthatwhistlingsound.blogspot.com/2009/04/strategies-part-2.html
  114. s like from Cochrane, Canada writes: Pending home sales! OMG. Talk about grasping at straws.

    Pretty soon they'll cheering 'Prospective Show Home Visitors who Agreed to a Followup Phone Call and Who Indicated They Might Possibly Consider Purchasing a Home in the Next 12 Months' stats.

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