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Sunday night's Golden Globe Awards (Jan. 11) kick off the prize-giving season for movies, a long cycle of boosterism that concludes on Feb. 22 with the 81st Academy Awards. Since the Oscars moved into February from March in 2004 to combat "award fatigue," the result has been a compressed awards-season frenzy.
In a recent Miramax online ad for the films Doubt and Happy-Go-Lucky, for example, no fewer than 18 different organizations were solicited, not including the ever-growing number of local film-critics associations. MAHG? Well that's the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild. VES? The Visual Effects Society. GLUG? The sound of a Golden Globe nominee swallowing champagne.
These "kudos fests" — as Variety likes to dub them — have become part of the cultural ritual of moviemaking itself. Yes, awards shows are synonymous with vanity, and fatuous statements by actors, but there are legitimate reasons to defend movie awards, in spite of the fact — or perhaps because of it — that such stories steal news space from the environment, the economy and war.
Although it may seem as though every movie wins a prize, the process is highly selective. There may be 300 Oscar-qualifying movies released each year in major urban centres, but the list of major contenders for various prizes rarely exceeds a dozen films, or about 4 per cent of the total. The selected films serve as cultural talking points, and also offer a handy guide to what to see or rent in the months ahead.
Where to put your Oscar best-picture bets This year, handicapping the Oscars, whose nominees will be announced Jan. 22, looks almost as interesting as the movies themselves. Hollywood waited until late in the year to release most of its major serious films about life, faith, love and war: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Reader and Revolutionary Road (all three of which are up for best-picture Golden Globes, along with Frost/Nixon and Slumdog Millionaire) plus Doubt and Valkyrie. None met with unanimous critical praise or boffo box office, while Jennifer Aniston's family-dog movie, Marley & Me, wagged its way to top-grossing film of the holiday season.
The best bet for best picture? At this point, it's probably Milk. A biopic of gay activist Harvey Milk, it hits an Obama note of hope and tolerance, and sends a note of protest against the defeat of California's Proposition 8, whose downfall suddenly disallowed gay marriage in the state. On the other hand, older academy voters aren't by any means all liberals — Brokeback Mountain lost to Crash in 2006.
Slumdog Millionaire, another inspirational film, which almost ended up as a direct-to-video project, is full of brio with its love-over-adversity theme, although it may be a little too flashy for Oscar tastes.
Almost everything else feels slightly off-centre. Doubt and Frost/Nixon are both stage plays — good, if a little too stiffly theatrical, though they'll do well in the acting categories. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has parallels to the 1995 Oscar-winner Forrest Gump, but it's a much drier affair, more technically admirable than emotionally moving. Changeling, Clint Eastwood's 1920s drama, is a bit of a rambling, dark melodrama, while the director's late-December entry, Gran Torino, is an odd blend of comedy and vigilante justice, which may feel too much like a genre film for special attention.
The open field leaves room for some possible Oscar firsts: The Dark Knight, the biggest box-office hit of the year, may break out of the comic-book ghetto and get a best-picture nod. (The late Heath Ledger has the Oscar lock for best supporting actor.) As well, the critical hit Wall-E has a chance to break through as the first animated film to win the best-picture award.
And where to put your other Oscar pool dollars
Sean Penn for Milk and Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler are obvious favourites, with Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon as a strong contender. The other two slots are open to one of: Brad Pitt for Button; Richard Jenkins for the low-profile The Visitor; Leonardo Di Caprio for Revolutionary Road; and possibly Robert Downey Jr. for Iron Man.
The best-actress competition is lively. Meryl Streep ( Doubt) is the obvious favourite, but there is strong buzz for Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married, Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky and Kristin Scott Thomas in the French drama I've Loved You So Long. Outside chances go to the stars of a couple of low-budget films: Melissa Leo in Frozen River and Michelle Williams in Wendy and Lucy. Kate Winslet, who's being put forward for consideration as both a supporting actress ( The Reader) and a lead ( Revolutionary Road) has a chance, as does Angelina Jolie for Changeling.
Early predictions for best director have all been echoed by the Directors Guild of America's nominees announced on Thursday: David Fincher for Benjamin Button, Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire, Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight, Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon and Gus Van Sant for Milk. Still, it may be premature to make any predictions until a slew of other awards ceremonies show their cards. And they're coming fast and furious, starting with tomorrow night's boozy Globes confab.
The Golden Globes
(aired: Sunday Jan. 11, 8 p.m. ET on CTV)
Every few years, another reporter exposes the star-schmoozing world of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association ("the Hollywood Horrid Press," as Kristin Scott Thomas once described it to me) and the grand ridiculousness of the Golden Globes. Yes, they are a small group of reporters who live in Los Angeles and work for foreign publications, and whose organization had the good luck to land a TV contract many years ago that allows for the year's biggest celebrity schmooze event.
Traditionally, their choices are a good early predictor of Oscar success. Otherwise, the program holds a special place as entertaining/cringe-inducing TV, where all kinds of celebrities show up, drink, and sometimes make off-the-cuff speeches.
Producers Guild of America (Jan. 24)
One of the more reliable predictors of best-picture Oscar honours, the PGA represents 3,500 producers in TV and film.
This year's nominations are:
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire
The interesting news here is the inclusion of The Dark Knight, which had been largely overlooked by critics' groups. With a PGA nod, along with a Writers Guild nomination, The Dark Knight is a legitimate threat for best picture.
Screen Actors Guild (Jan. 25)
The nominations are chosen by 4,200 randomly selected members of the union, with the full 120,000 membership voting on the choices. The televised show is known for its casual, unscripted quality. Because actors are the largest voting block in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, their choices often prophecy Oscar acting nods.
The nominees for best actor:
- Sean Penn ( Milk)
- Mickey Rourke ( The Wrestler)
- Brad Pitt ( Benjamin Button)
- Richard Jenkins ( The Visitor)
- Frank Langella ( Frost/Nixon)
For best actress:
- Anne Hathaway ( Rachel Getting Married)
- Angelina Jolie ( Changeling)
- Melissa Leo ( Frozen River)
- Meryl Streep ( Doubt)Kate Winslet ( Revolutionary Road)
Directors Guild of America (Jan. 31)
Though these awards are not televised, the 14,000-member DGA is a good predictor of the director who'll nab an Oscar.
This year's nominees:
- David Fincher ( The Curious Case of
- Benjamin Button)
- Danny Boyle ( Slumdog Millionaire)
- Christopher Nolan ( The Dark Knight)
- Ron Howard ( Frost/Nixon )
- Gus Van Sant ( Milk )
Writers Guild of America (Feb. 7)
Two different unions are represented by the WGA (East and West). Their combined 13,000 votes determine the outcome. Last year, the WGA picked No Country for Old Men and Juno as their best-adapted and original screenplay, respectively. Both went on to be Oscar winners.
This year's nominees for best adapted screenplay:
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- The Dark Knight
- Doubt
- Frost/Nixon
- Slumdog Millionaire
Nominees for best original screenplay:
- Burn after Reading
- Milk
- Vicky Cristina Barcelona
- The Visitor
- The Wrestler
Although the writers and producers often make different choices, no movie has ever won a best-picture Oscar after missing both the Writers Guild and the Producers Guild award. That suggests Wall-E is unlikely to take best picture, but it may still get a nomination. In compensation, it looks like a sure thing for best animated feature, in spite of a late challenge from the grimly topical Israeli anti-war doc, Waltz With Bashir. Liam Lacey