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ESPANOLA, Ont. — Orange election signs are dominating red ones across the once-Liberal domain of Northern Ontario, with NDP strength surging in many ridings currently held by the Grits.
Liberal supporters here don't talk publicly about the hard-fought battles being waged from Kenora in the west to North Bay in the east. And they say the recent upswing in Liberal popularity may have pushed them to safer ground.
But even veteran Liberal MPs such as Diane Marleau, the former Chrétien-era cabinet minister who has spent two decades in the House of Commons, is said to be working hard to keep her seat.
And polls suggest that New Democrats are leaving both Liberals and Conservatives in their dust.
Liberal Leader Stephane Dion leaves a campaign rally with his wife Janine Krieber and daughter Jean during a stop in Brampton, Ont. on Friday. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)
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A survey conducted this week for The Globe and Mail and CTV by the Strategic Counsel found that in Northern Ontario, 41 per cent of respondents supported the NDP, 27 per cent backed the Conservatives, 23 per cent said they would vote Liberal and 9 per cent backed the Greens. The margin of error was large – 10.3 per cent. But something seems to be changing in Ontario's North.
“This has been the largest riding campaign for all of the parties in years, in decades,” said Stewart Meikleham, the campaign co-ordinator for Liberal incumbent Brent St. Denis in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing.
“It's absolutely tough,” said Mr. Meikleham, who turned out to witness a meet-and-greet with NDP Leader Jack Layton at a Tim Hortons outlet in this community west of Sudbury.
“In this particular riding, we have a strong Liberal candidate and we have a strong NDP candidate, and they are both presenting views and great conversations,” said Mr. Meikleham, who said he thinks the Liberals have picked up steam in recent days.
But Carol Hughes, the New Democratic candidate in Algoma, is mounting a strong challenge in this riding, which has been Liberal since it was created in 2004, and which has a history of swinging between the Liberals and the Conservatives in its earlier incarnations.
And this isn't the only Liberal seat in jeopardy. The New Democrats are also threatening in Kenora, Nickel Belt and Thunder Bay-Rainy River.
Thunder Bay-Superior North, which was previously held by Joe Comuzzi, a Liberal turned Conservative, is also being seriously contended by the NDP.
John Peters, who teaches political science at Laurentian University in Sudbury, said in an e-mail yesterday that he believes the two seats currently held by New Democrats Charlie Angus and Tony Martin are safe.
“But forestry slowdowns and plant closures may have some impact for a protest vote and cause [Liberal voters] to switch. And there is a core of NDP support in much of Northern Ontario,” Prof. Peters said.
That means Mr. Layton's party will have its “best shot ever” in Sudbury, Nickel Belt and Algoma, he said.
“If the NDP do sweep, it will because of Jack's rising profile in English Canada and the fading one of Stéphane Dion,” Prof. Peters said.
For his part, Mr. Layton has put a lot of work into wooing Ontario's North.
He talks about commiserating with steelworkers who have lost their jobs.
He talks about trying to get a better deal for forestry workers than the one the Conservative government signed with the U.S. government. He talks about the history that was lost when a union hall in Sudbury burned down.
“NDP support seems rock solid here in Sudbury,” Mr. Layton told a crowd of supporters in a local science centre this week.
“Working people in Sudbury know all about pulling together in tough times, you've done it before and you're going to do it again.”
Still, the Liberals say the seeming strength of the NDP is overrated.
“I think that the NDP are merely trying to change the channel from their own stall. They have spent the entire campaign talking about a ‘surge' that just does not exist,” said George Young, a spokesman for the Liberals, when asked about NDP strength in Northern Ontario.
“I am not saying that some races are not close in many parts of the country. That is precisely why we have been encouraging voters to recognize that the only real alternative to Stephen Harper is Stéphane Dion. We have also seen that there has been a swell of support for us on the ground.”
Week 5 of the campaign
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