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SASKATOON, Sask. — Jack Layton wants to end the NDP drought in this province where so much of his party's history was written.
He also wants to win seats in neighbouring Alberta and Manitoba.
But four weeks into the campaign, major polls show the NDP is hovering at about 20 per cent in popular support across the prairies – roughly the same numbers at which the party entered the race.
Mr. Layton's promise to take a hard line with the big energy companies has been a tough sell in a region where so many people depend on oil and gas for their livelihood.
NDP Leader Jack Layton walks through Edmonton City Hall before speaking to supporters during a campaign stop on Wednesday. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
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“While Layton's message may be resonating in Ontario, British Columbia and even Quebec, it is definitely falling flat on the prairies,” David McGrane, a political science professor at the University of Saskatchewan, said in an e-mail Wednesday.
The NDP Leader has made repeated visits to the prairies since the writ was dropped – he stopped in Edmonton, Saskatoon, Thompson, Man., and Winnipeg on Wednesday alone.
Here in Saskatchewan, the departure from politics of former Conservative cabinet minister Carol Skelton may have given the NDP's Nettie Wiebe an opening in the riding of Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar.
In Alberta – where the Conservative machine rarely cedes ground to any other party - New Democrat Linda Duncan may have a shot at unseating veteran Conservative Rahim Jaffer in Edmonton-Strathcona.
And in the Churchill riding in northern Manitoba, where the NDP plane touched down briefly Wednesday, the NDP has a chance of retaking a riding it lost to the Liberals in 2006.
So it would be wrong to say the NDP has gained no traction on the prairies. But neither has there been a groundswell of support, even as Conservative fortunes plummet and Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion fails to resonate with the people of this region.
At the morning stop in Edmonton Wednesday, Mr. Layton said a growing number of Albertans are seeing things his way. They agree there should be no additional development of the oil patch without plans to deal with negative issues that flow from it, he told reporters.
“I think that there's a very exciting move afoot,” he told reporters who asked what he was doing in Alberta with so few days left in the race.
“Of course, we just about won a seat in Alberta last time around and I think we've got a whole lot more reasons and a whole lot more strong candidates to help us win seats this time.”
At a brief stop outside the Saskatoon airport, the NDP Leader was supported by former Saskatchewan NDP premier Lorne Calvert.
“When you settle in on trouble times, you have to pull together. And nobody knows that better than the people of Saskatchewan who have face troubled time in the past,” Mr. Layton told a small crowd who stood in the cold drizzle to hear their leader.
This province is a place where, in theory, the NDP should be able to win. Tommy Douglas was premier of Saskatchewan for 17 years before he became the first leader of the New Democratic Party in 1961.
But it just isn't happening, said Dr. McGrane.
“Layton is seen as an urbanite Toronto guy that does not understand the issues facing the prairies,” he said.
“The NDP's message has been crafted to Layton's Ontario base. People on the prairies are not interested in massive relief for the eastern manufacturing industry or a moratorium on oil sands development.”
And, said Dr. McGrane, social democrats on the prairies have never been anti-business. “Layton's suggestions of eliminating corporate tax cuts and his repeated assertions in the English language debate that he would tax big oil don't play well on the prairies.”
On the other hand, James Laxer, a political science professor at York University who once ran to lead the NDP, said he thinks Mr. Layton is making the right moves.
“I think Layton is wisely focusing on the pain being felt in the manufacturing sector, and the general uncertainty wage and salary earners are feeling in this economic crisis,” said Dr. Laxer who has occasionally been a critic of Mr. Layton's strategy.
“You've got to make some choices and Harper's priorities over the last two years – putting the oil sands first – have especially harmed central Canada where Layton is hoping to make gains.”
NDP governments in Saskatchewan and Manitoba have both reduced corporate taxes over the past several years.
Still Mr. Layton pushes on. “Reach out to people with progressive ideas and who believe as we do that it's time for some hope in troubles times,” he urged his supporters in Saskatoon. “There's an orange wave building right across this country. You can feel it at the door. And we have six more days to turn it around.”
Week 5 of the campaign
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