Battle lines drawn in B.C.'s bellwether riding

IAN BAILEY

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

September 30, 2008 at 9:55 PM EST

VANCOUVER — Bill Cunningham knows political adversity: He got started in politics as a teenaged Liberal in Alberta.

That meant being booed at times and having doors slammed in his face.

“There's nothing that teaches you [more] about standing up for what you believe in than being a Liberal in Alberta,” says the current Liberal candidate in the Vancouver-area riding of Burnaby-Douglas.

A thick skin could help with his current challenge.

For the third consecutive election, the 39-year-old commercial banker, a native of Edmonton, is trying to win the riding from the NDP.

However, he is enough of a political pro to acknowledge that things are challenging.

He lost to the NDP's Bill Siksay by about 1,200 votes in 2006, and prospects for closing the gap this time are complicated by the softening Liberal vote.

“I would be a lot more jazzed if the polls were higher than they are today, but at the same time I know there are two weeks left,” said Mr. Cunningham, a former president of the federal Liberal wing in B.C.

“I certainly don't get the sense that even those who aren't sure about the Liberal Party have completely walked away from the idea of voting Liberal.”

Take note of Burnaby-Douglas, a riding of about 112,000 people – more than 47 per cent immigrant, according to the 2006 census – just east of central Vancouver and including the main campus of Simon Fraser University.

Former NDP leader Tommy Douglas represented the area in the 1960s; Svend Robinson was MP for 25 years, representing the area, then the specific riding after it was created in 1996.

Observers say what's happening here echoes trends in other battleground ridings across Canada – ridings that could go any way because margins of victory are so small.

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion has been to the riding twice during the current campaign, NDP Leader Jack Layton has been there once.

In 2006, the NDP won with 36 per cent of the vote. The Liberals got 33 per cent and the Tories came third with 28 per cent.

This time, the fight for votes may be narrowing to a two-way race between the NDP and Tories, reflecting patterns at play in battleground ridings across Canada.

“It's in keeping with the problems [Liberals] are facing in Ontario, with the only difference being that the NDP is a stronger contender in this riding than in most Ontario ridings,” said Peter Donolo, a partner with the Strategic Counsel, a leading market research group that has been tracking the battleground ridings.

Mr. Donolo said Burnaby-Douglas remains a close race, but that the retreat of the Liberal vote, tracked in some polls, could benefit the Conservatives.

That, in Burnaby-Douglas, would be Ronald Leung, a former radio talk-show host and special ministerial assistant in B.C. He said Tuesday that his job as a Conservative candidate is easier now than it was for Tories in recent elections because the party has a track record in government on such issues as crime and the economy that may be appealing to some NDP-inclined voters.

Andrew Heard, a professor of political science at SFU, says Mr. Siksay could suffer if votes drift to the Green Party.

“[Mr. Leung] may be able to capitalize on this vote split and the regional upswing in support for the Tories. If so, it would be a coup to capture what has been an NDP seat for many years,” he said in an e-mail.

Mr. Siksay says he's more worried about the Tories than he is about the Liberals.

“On the strength of the Conservatives being in government and the national campaign, they may be more of a player this time in the riding, but I think they are running second,” he said.

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