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OTTAWA — Liberal candidates have fallen well behind their Conservative rivals in ridings that were expected to be the most hard-fought Ontario turf of the 2008 election, a new poll suggests.
The survey conducted this week by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail and CTV News puts the Tories ahead of the Liberals by 13 per cent across the 20 Ontario ridings outside Toronto that were anticipated to be tough two- or three-way races.
The Conservatives had the support of 45 per cent of respondents in these crucial battlegrounds.
The Liberals, by comparison, were the first choice of 32 per cent of those surveyed. That's a slight climb since the start of September but a drop from the 39 per cent of the vote they earned in the 2006 election.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper hugs his niece Kathie Harper, 10, following his media availability in Calgary on Friday. (The Canadian Press)
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The NDP was favoured by 15 per cent of respondents, bolstered by good numbers in the North and parts of the southwest. And the Greens were down to just 9 per cent from a high of 17 per cent at the outset of the campaign.
“What's interesting here is that there is a net transfer of support to the Conservatives from both the Liberals and the NDP,” said Peter Donolo, a partner with the Strategic Counsel.
In many of the ridings, Mr. Donolo said, the survey suggests the support for the New Democrats is actually below where it stood after the 2006 election. That brings them down to their traditional base and they are unlikely to dip much further.
But that doesn't help the Liberals, Mr. Donolo said, because in ridings where there are no NDP votes to plumb, Liberals can turn only to Conservative voters. And Conservative voters are among the most entrenched in the country.
The survey, which was conducted between Sept. 23 and Sept. 25, sampled varying numbers of people in different regions of Ontario, and has an expected margin of error that ranges from 5.6 per cent to 7.6 per cent in that province.
It suggests the Tories are especially strong throughout the so-called 905 area-code belt around Toronto that stretches from Oshawa in the east and down into the Niagara peninsula. In that region, they had the support of 48 per cent of the respondents.
The 905 was the worst area for the NDP and the Greens.
The Grits, meanwhile, appear to be in some trouble even in long-time Liberal seats like Oakville, which is held by former mayor Bonnie Brown, and Mississauga South, which is held by veteran MP Paul Szabo.
In all parts of Ontario, the battleground ridings held by the Conservatives when the writ was dropped appear to be out of the reach of any other party, Mr. Donolo said.
There is some room for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion to claw back into contention in ridings where his members are the incumbents, he said, but only in cases where the NDP and the Greens still have significant support.
In those ridings, Mr. Dion needs to deliver the right kind of message aimed at NDP voters and Green voters who are concerned about the Conservatives winning a majority on Oct. 14, Mr. Donolo said.
“I think it's time for him to break the glass and press the Stop Harper button,” he said.
But that strategy would only work for Mr. Dion in places where the NDP is third behind the Tories, Mr. Donolo said.
