CALGARY — Stephen Harper's Conservatives have broken through a political firewall, with a minority government -- one far more fragile than he would have wished for -- that will seek to reshape the psyche of the country.
At Mr. Harper's victory party last night, elation over the Tory win was mixed, at least among some celebrants, with frustration and even disappointment that it had not been more emphatic. Liberal Fortress Ontario, although its walls were breached, nonetheless withstood the worst of the assault. But in a way, Ontario's ambivalence only accentuates the results. The relative paucity of Ontario MPs in the governing caucus means Western MPs will make up roughly half the caucus.
Mr. Harper must know, this morning, that he will be working with a limited mandate. While the Liberals will be in a mess for months to come, the Conservatives will face a powerful opposition in the House. Gilles Duceppe had a bad night -- the Tory surge in Quebec cost him seats -- but the Bloc Québécois will nonetheless often be the party that decides whether a bill or a budget gets passed.
Jack Layton has built his NDP caucus to about 30 MPs, but it was unclear last night whether he would have enough to deliver a majority for the Conservatives, if he wanted to. Nonetheless, until the Liberals get their act together, it is Mr. Layton who will serve as the real voice of centrist, communitarian and federalist values in the House.
The weakness of the Tory minority should not disguise the truth that this is a win, a palpable win, for a leader from the West and a party that embraces the West, which is the real significance of this election.
From today on, Calgary, Vancouver and Edmonton will share power and influence with Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa. Those in the centre who have tried to ignore the westward shift of population and wealth, and the growing influence of western values, are going to have to adjust.
What does this triumph of the West mean, concretely? Think of a Canada where the Pacific Ocean is as much a part of the national mindset as the Atlantic Ocean now is; where China and India mean as much as Europe, and the American South means as much as the American Northeast.
Think beyond that. Think of a shift in political outlook -- not radical or frightening, but fundamental nonetheless. Think of a federal government that sticks to its constitutional knitting, focusing on defence, foreign relations, justice, the border, and leaving provincial governments free to deal with their natural resources, their health care, education and transportation systems, and their cities, pretty much as they see fit.
Think of a Canada that, while not abandoning the collective responsibilities of the national community, places greater emphasis on the rights and responsibilities of individuals to make their own way.
This is the emerging Western ethos. It is the ethos of the new prime-minister-designate. It will be the ethos of the government.
Jerry Olynuk put it well. "It's a mini-revolution," he said, yesterday, grinning. The 40-something portfolio manager at an investment firm was enjoying Calgary's glorious, feels-like-spring atmosphere and the prospect of a Tory win.
"The 905 [area code outside Toronto] has to understand that it's time for a change. We're not going to be coming after them. But we can't live with the status quo any more."
No one will find this harder to grasp than the leadership of the Liberal Party. Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chrétien thought they could govern without the West. Paul Martin tried to break through the wall, but his efforts were half-hearted.
He is gone now; although Mr. Martin can take pride in stemming the Tory onslaught, the 21st prime minister's political influence effectively ended last night. The Liberal Party must now ask itself: Why have we been relegated to scattered urban bastions in Montreal, Toronto and environs, Vancouver, and the redoubt in Atlantic Canada? Yes, the Conservatives must ask themselves why their party does not speak to these crucial centres of population, wealth and culture. But the question for the Liberals is more urgent. The party is in danger of being reduced to an urban rump.
It is good for the Conservatives and good for the country that Quebec has sent a solid contingent of Tory MPs to Ottawa. But Quebeckers must no longer assume that their agenda is the first item on the national agenda. And though Ontario is now as much a Tory stronghold as a Liberal one, urban Southern Ontario will no longer be first among equals in the national debate.
The millions there must share political space equally with the other millions who, until now, have been largely excluded from power in Ottawa and from real influence in the national debate.
From this day forward, the West must be accounted for. No party and no politically engaged person can ignore this truth.
Like it or not, the West is in -- to stay.