When Stephen Harper sends out his postelection thank-you notes, he owes an extra-special thank you to Belinda Stronach. Without her, he might not be prime-minister-designate today.
The Belinda factor has loomed large in Mr. Harper's fortunes. She was the matchmaker who helped bring together the Canadian Alliance and the PCs in 2003. The two sides had talked but balked. Ms. Stronach, then CEO of her father's company, Magna, invited Mr. Harper and Peter MacKay to join her for a private meeting where she urged them to tie the knot.
It was a historic ménage à trois. Stronach: The Woman Who United The Right, blared The Globe and Mail over a babe-alicious photo of Belinda. Now this was news! Unlike the two men, she had sex appeal.
Nobody was enthusiastic about either man to lead the merged party. "A fresh face is needed," opined National Post columnist Don Martin. Alberta Premier Ralph Klein questioned if either man had the "timbre of what is needed to be national leader." Joe Clark was certain the merger would be a disaster. "Progressive Conservatives are being asked to vote 'yes' to suicide," he wrote in November of 2003.
Belinda inherited her penchant for politics from her father, Frank, who once made a notably unsuccessful run for a Liberal seat. For her part, soon after proclaiming that she herself had no interest in leading the new party, Belinda declared she did. This ambition struck some as a bit premature, in that she had never run for public office. But it struck others as a brilliant bit of marketing. It meant the public might pay attention to a weak and marginal party. News editors rejoiced. The Globe and Mail, however, was not impressed. "The new Conservatives get off to a dismal start," it editorialized two years ago this week. "The Liberals' near-absolute hegemony in Ottawa will endure for some years."
Mr. Harper won the leadership. Belinda won a seat in Parliament. But behind the scenes, not all was well. It had been a shotgun marriage, and things were rocky. Adding to the usual tensions, Peter and the twice-married Belinda had become an item. Both agreed on what the fledgling party's problem was: the leader. As the saying goes, bedfellows make strange politics.
Then, one dramatic day last May, Belinda dumped both her party and her man and crossed the floor to join the Liberals, thus saving Paul Martin's government from certain defeat and the country from a summer election.
Her defection had one other remarkable result. It united the Conservative Party. When a shattered Peter MacKay came into caucus that day, Stephen Harper stepped completely out of character, and hugged him. The caucus members erupted into cheers. After that, insiders say, the warring factions finally began to bond.
Then Mr. Harper embarked on his makeover. He needed one. In spite of Liberal scandals, he was still unpopular. "However disgusted people may be with the Liberals, they're not going to forget that the alternative is a snarling, mean-eyed pit bull," one opinion-monger wrote last May. (Hint: It was me.) Lots of people doubted the Conservatives would win unless he was replaced with somebody more voter-friendly.
At the urging of his wife, Laureen, Mr. Harper hit the road. All summer, he flipped burgers, shook hands and kissed babies. People scoffed. The media gleefully ran a goofy picture of him in a leather vest and cowboy hat. But it worked. He visited a hundred ridings, and returned to Ottawa a more personable man. Then the Gomery report came out, handily reviving flagging outrage at the Liberals. By December, Mr. Harper was ready to launch a near-impeccable campaign.
What if Belinda hadn't crossed the floor? It's a tantalizing question. Maybe Mr. Harper would have squeaked in anyway. Or maybe the Conservatives would be having a leadership convention. Personally, my bet is that she did him an enormous favour.
For one brief, shining moment, Belinda Stronach was the most important woman in Canadian politics. Then she made a disastrous career move, and now she's just a footnote. Funny how things work out sometimes. mwente@globeandmail.ca