Climate change? These stocks
may see greener pastures

Magna, Potash Corp. among those 'well positioned' to benefit from greater concern,
John Partridge reports


Looking for a way to make money and help stave off global warming, the next ice age or whatever other catastrophe may be in store for the world if climate change is left unchecked?

U.S. investment banking giant Citigroup Global Markets Inc. has created a list of 74 companies around the world that it figures are "well positioned" to benefit from the increasing emphasis on climate change issues by governments, regulators and the public, and, hence, good bets for investors -- and Canada's Magna International Inc. and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. have secured spots on the roster.

The list is included in a 120-page report on the investment implications of global warming written by Edward Kerschner, chief investment officer for Citigroup's research division. As often seems to be the case in investing, perception may be more important than reality.

"For investors, the issue is not whether climate change is [actually] occurring," Mr. Kerschner said. "Today, a variety of entities . . . are reacting to the perceived climate change threat, creating a number of near-term opportunities."

In all, the 74 companies on Mr. Kerschner's list are drawn from 21 industries, ranging from construction and property insurance to biofuel manufacture, wind, nuclear and gas power production, environmental consulting and carbon credit trading. They are based in 18 countries in all, including Australia (one entry) Britain (four), China (one), Japan (three), Spain (six) and the United States (30).

Magna, based in Aurora, Ont., and one of the world's largest auto parts makers, stands to benefit from initiatives by various U.S. states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, along with a voluntary pact to reduce them that the European Commission has reached with auto makers from Europe, Japan and South Korea, according to the report.

This is because cutting vehicle weight is seen as one of the best ways of reducing the offending emissions, and the Canadian company "is developing specialty, lightweight products and components for automotive use, including ultra-high-strength steel, hybrid (aluminum/steel) structures, and lightweight composites and drive-train components," Mr. Kerschner said.

Potash Corp., meanwhile, stands to gain from another of the most favoured emission reduction methods: switching to less carbon-intensive fuels, such as bioethanol and biodiesel. A growing number of countries are requiring the addition of the cleaner-burning new fuels to gasoline and diesel.

Ethanol is essentially grain alcohol produced from crops such as corn and sugar cane, and the three nutrients the Saskatoon firm produces -- potash, nitrogen and phosphate -- are important in grain cultivation, Mr. Kerschner said.

He also sees opportunities for several smaller U.S. insurers in the belief among some sectors of the scientific community that "climate change factors have led to an increase in the frequency and/or severity of intense hurricanes."

Citigroup analysts, he said, estimate that 96 per cent of the $94-billion (U.S.) in insured catastrophe losses in 2005 was caused by windstorms, up from 78 per cent the year before. In 2005, the United States was hit by three Category 5 hurricanes, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in a single season "for the first time since these events have been accurately reported."

As a result, he said, many large "mega-carriers," both insurers and reinsurers, have cut back on the amount of coverage they are willing to provide to hurricane-prone areas of the United States.

Among the potential beneficiaries of this exodus are ACE Ltd., which wrote $12-billion in net premiums last year, and Arch Capital Group, which wrote $3-billion worth, he said.

Farther afield, the Citigroup list of well-positioned companies includes:

Gas producers such as Russia's OAO Gazprom, the world's largest, and Gaz de France, one of the biggest in Europe.

Wind power companies, including Spain's Acciona and Gamesa.

Auto makers such as Japan's Honda Motor Co. Ltd., which is developing a "superclean" diesel engine, and Toyota Motor Corp., which Citigroup calls "the global leader in hybrid electric vehicles."

Biofuel producers, such as Brasil Ecodiesel and CropEnergies of Germany, which operates Europe's largest bioethanol plant.

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