Technology brings incremental changes each year, but they are large enough to have a profound difference on how we conduct our lives over the course of a single decade.

Ten years ago, for example, the Web was still a tool of the minority, cellphones were elitist and Google didn’t exist.

The elements of change coming in 2007 include Microsoft Corp.’s first new operating system in five years, blisteringly fast microprocessors from Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc., and Apple Computer Inc.’s widely anticipated push into the smart phone market. The advances in information technology and telecommunications in 2007 won’t change the world overnight, but they will play an important role in shaping our lives 10 years out and beyond.

Carmi Levy, senior research analyst at Info-Tech Research Group Inc. in London, Ont., sees four big themes for the tech sector in 2007: security, mobility, collaboration and software as a service.

“Security is a huge issue that refuses to go away, and rightly so,” he says. “Technology can accelerate the rate at which we work and the rate at which we get into trouble.”

The past year has provided numerous high-profile cases of lost laptops and computer disks resulting in millions of individuals’ personal data falling into the wrong hands. And analysts say the breaches are hurting the industry.

“There is an ongoing reluctance to put our complete trust in technology, and a huge amount of business is lost each year because of fear,” Mr. Levy says.

“The industry must do a better job of convincing people that their confidential info will not fall into the wrong hands, that people in Moscow basements aren’t surreptitiously emptying their bank accounts when they do a transfer.”

Security may finally move into the forefront of people’s minds in 2007, in part because Microsoft has finally become serious about the matter with its new Vista operating system. Security now forms the backbone of a lot of new products from the world’s No..1 software company, which in turn will make it easier for specialized firms such as McAfee Inc. and Symantec Corp. to sell
their software.

Although they will face direct competition from Microsoft, customers will become more aware of security matters thanks to the software giant’s new focus on protecting computers, Mr. Levy says, and security will grow faster than the rest of the IT industry next year. In addition to Vista, Microsoft has just launched Office 2007. Unlike previous versions of the productivity tool, this incarnation allows users to share data in real time, letting multiple individuals contribute to a live document regardless of their location. The product is part of a shift in the industry that recognizes that the way people work has fundamentally changed because of the Internet and intranets, Mr. Levy said.

“No longer will the remote worker be the poor cousin of the head office worker,” he said.

Instant messaging, virtual workspaces and video-conferencing are some of the new ingredients that make up this collaborative world. Cisco Systems Inc., for example, will be promoting a video-conferencing system called TelePresence that uses high-speed IP networks, special software and large plasma-screen TVs to give users what Cisco says is a sense of sitting at the same table with other participants. Another trend taking hold in the workplace is software as a service. Software from companies such as Salesforce.com Inc. means that businesses no longer have to deploy programs right on their computers, but can instead use subscription services that are hosted on a third party’s servers.

The technology can reduce purchase costs for small and medium-sized businesses by as much as 75 per cent, says Greg Wolfe, senior vice-president of the Americas for Business Objects SA. His firm, a large provider of business intelligence software, began offering subscription services last June.

“It’s a game changer for [small businesses] that want more sophisticated programs. Ultimately, it allows them to act bigger, be more productive and spend less on technology,” Mr. Levy adds.

Google is taking the concept to millions of users with some of its new features. It is testing a free, Web-based word processing and spreadsheet program called Google Docs & Spreadsheets that allows individuals to work together on documents from various locations. It is also testing a free service for businesses called Google Apps for Your Domain, which melds its e-mail, calendar and other communications tools into one package that users
can customize.

Next year is also widely seen as the time when smart phones will become mainstream. Research In Motion’s BlackBerry devices are no longer niche products. They have spawned a new industry of powerful handsets that are only marginally more expensive than the cellphones most people now carry.

Just how ubiquitous smart phones become in 2007 depends largely on the phone companies. So far, the telecoms have failed to convert most mobile customers to data clients. “The market will gradually accept the value of data, but the carriers and device makers will have to convince us it’s worth spending the extra [money on],” Mr. Levy said.

He expects that Rogers Wireless Communications Inc., Bell Mobility Inc. and Telus Corp. will test the waters with lower-priced data plans next year, but he says they will also have to improve customer service and simplify their service plans to win over the mainstream. One new player expected to arrive in the smart-phone market is Apple Computer. Benjamin Reitzes, an analyst with UBS Securities LLC in New York, expects the Silicon Valley company to push into the category in 2007, even as it reinvigorates its iPod line with video, gaming and wireless-related features.

While the iconic computer company goes head-to-head with RIM in handsets, Apple will also roll out a media hub for the home and possibly an ultraportable PC, Mr. Reitzes predicts. “We believe Apple could see much better growth and drive this category if it stripped down features, optimized the device for media playing and Web surfing and used its engineering and scale to drive prices down toward the $500-$600 level,” he said.

Major telecom companies will be counting on the continued success of wireless in the new year. Wireless service has proved to be the engine of their operations in 2006 as the cable operators have swept up long-time land-line phone customers with successful VoIP offerings this year. But analysts are warning that the wireless world could change rapidly in 2007 and say the telecom industry needs to find new ways to make money and keep shareholders satisfied.

The question they face today is “if not income trusts, then what?” says Iain Grant, managing director of the telecom consultancy SeaBoard Group. The chief executive officers of the phone companies, particularly BCE Inc.’s Michael Sabia, must energize their stock prices. Since the federal government’s move to rein in income trusts, “he and others in his position need to find the next magic bullet,” Mr. Grant says.